Risk Methodology

1. What we index

We run a continuous indexer against Robinhood Chain (chain ID 4663) that watches the Uniswap V3 factory (0x1f7d7550…2EfA) for PoolCreated events. Every new memecoin on Robinhood Chain creates a Uniswap V3 pool at launch, so this captures every launch, regardless of which launchpad produced it.

For each launch we record: the token address, name/symbol, the pool address, the creation block and timestamp, the creator (the externally-owned account that sent the launch transaction), and the launchpad (the contract that transaction called). We store nothing that isn’t already public on-chain.

2. How launches work on Robinhood Chain

We verified the launch mechanics directly from the deployed launchpad contracts rather than assuming. Robinhood Chain memecoins launch as instant Uniswap V3 pools with locked liquidity — not bonding curves with a graduation step. The three dominant launch paths are:

• Pons (PonsLaunchFactory) — the largest by volume.
• LaunchHood (LaunchHoodV3Factory, launchhood.fun) — deploys token clones and locks LP.
• Direct — creators using Uniswap’s V3 position manager manually, with no launchpad.

Because pools are created immediately, most launch with single-sided liquidity (the token, paired against ~0 WETH); WETH only accumulates in the pool as people buy. This detail is the foundation of our liquidity signal below.

3. The liquidity (“death”) signal

We measure whether a token holds real liquidity by reading its pool’s WETH balance on-chain. A token is classified “dead / no liquidity” when, after it is at least 48 hours old, its pool holds less than 0.01 WETH.

We calibrated the 0.01 WETH threshold empirically: sampling recent pools, ~92% hold under 0.01 WETH, with a clean gap between “dust” (near zero) and genuinely funded pools (0.5 WETH and up). The threshold is configurable and published.

4. Creator Doom Record

We group every token by its creator wallet and calculate a live, evidence-weighted 0–100 Doom Record:

• 50% survival — current measured liquidity for launches aged 48 hours or more.
• 30% commitment — completed versus defaulted Doom commitments.
• 20% longevity — tokens aged 30+ days that remain above the liquidity floor now.
• Decay — recent abandoned launches reduce the current score, so an old badge cannot hide new behavior.

“Matured” means older than 48h and liquidity-checked; tokens too young to judge are never counted as dead. These are current snapshots after the age threshold, not claims of continuous liquidity. Laplace smoothing and evidence weighting prevent one result from creating an extreme score. Fewer than three weighted outcomes stays Unrated; larger samples progress through Bronze, Silver, and Gold, or fall to Watch and Doomed Record. Launch count alone no longer creates a negative tier.

5. Launchpad attribution & comparison

Because we capture which contract initiated each launch, we can compare launchpads head-to-head — launch volume, average risk, and death rate per launchpad. To our knowledge this is the only per-launchpad rug-rate comparison on Robinhood Chain. It lets a user ask “does Pons or LaunchHood produce more failed tokens?” and get an on-chain answer.

6. The Doom Index

A single 0–100 number: the average per-token risk score of all tokens launched in the last 24 hours. It’s a daily “fear gauge” for the chain, not a per-token judgment.

7. Per-token risk score

Each token gets a 0–100 risk score (higher = riskier), a weighted blend of on-chain signals:

• Holder concentration — share held by the top holders (via the chain explorer API).
• Creator history — the creator’s death rate, as defined above.
• LP status — whether liquidity is locked.
• Honeypot / sellability — whether the token can be sold.

8. Guardrails

• We never label a token “safe” — only risk indicators.
• We never accept payment to alter a score or reputation.
• We publish this methodology and version it.
• We keep a strict tone firewall between the DoomStreak (consumer) and OnchainDiligence (professional) surfaces; the underlying data and method are identical.

9. Limitations

On-chain analysis cannot see off-chain intent, private agreements, or future behavior. Scores are probabilistic risk indicators derived from public data, updated continuously, and not financial advice or a guarantee of safety. Always do your own research.

Changelog